Bitcoin's price has spent fifteen years oscillating around a single straight line. Plot price against time since the genesis block with both axes logarithmic, and the chaos of four boom-and-bust cycles averages out into a power law — price ≈ 10−16.493 × days5.688. Physicist Giovanni Santostasi formalised the model in 2018; the fit still explains about 96% of the variance in log price (R² ≈ 0.96).
The Power Law Chart
Actual price (orange) against the model's fair-value trend (white), with the historical support floor (green) and ceiling (red). Both axes are logarithmic, so the power law is a straight line. Dashed lines past today are the model projected forward — not a prediction.
Spot—
Fair value (trend)—model, today
Vs. trend—
Support floor—−2σ band
Ceiling—+2σ band
Actual price Fair value Support Ceiling Today · Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to pan.
Formula: price = 10−16.493 × (days since the genesis block, Jan 3, 2009)5.688. Bands are the ±2σ corridor (support ≈ 0.40× trend, ceiling ≈ 2.51× trend) — price has closed below the floor only briefly, three times in fifteen years. Price history: blockchain.info market-price index, every 4 days, Aug 2010 – Nov 10, 2026. Spot price: ~$68,700 on Nov 13, 2026 (Bitstamp / Kraken). A refit on the same data gives an exponent of ≈ 5.6 with R² ≈ 0.96 — the same picture; the exact exponent drifts as new data arrives (about 5.8 in 2022, about 5.6–5.7 today). Live daily-refit chart: bitcoinpowerlaw.com.
How to read it
Below the trend — the model frames Bitcoin as undervalued relative to its fifteen-year path. Deep below trend, near the green floor, has historically been the accumulation zone.
Above the trend — the model frames it as stretched. Bull-market peaks have topped out lower each cycle relative to trend (about 11× in 2013, 6.6× in 2017, 3.6× in 2021, about 1.4× in 2024–25).
Where it stands now — spot sits below the trend line but just above the support floor. The model says how stretched price is, never when it will move.
Honest limitations
A fit to the past, not a law of nature. Fifteen years and roughly four cycles is a striking sample, not a guarantee. Regulation, a technical failure, or a better competitor could bend the curve.
The exponent is not a constant. It is a regression estimate that shifts as data arrives, and different starting dates give anything from about 4.9 to 5.9. Distant projections swing wildly with small changes.
Wide bands. "Within −60% to +150% of trend" is a huge range in the short term. This is a compass for years, not a trading signal for Tuesdays.
Not financial advice — one lens among many.
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